April 16 (UPI) -- The rise in prediction markets and an email to White House staff have lawmakers weighing how to regulate them and prevent government officials from trading on nonpublic information.
Newer platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded the popularity of prediction markets, offering trades on everything from weather and sports to politics, policy and war. Unusual betting activity has raised alarms about government employees using non-public information to enrich themselves on these platforms.
Polymarket, an unregulated offshore platform where cryptocurrency is used to wager, allows users to create accounts anonymously. It also has hosted markets on the Iran war, posing questions about when military action against Iran will end, whether Iran will lose control of Kharg Island, and "Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?"
President Donald Trump and other U.S. officials have the potential to influence some of these questions, questions that have millions of dollars at stake.
As of Wednesday, a volume of more than $25 million had been traded, predicting the date that Trump will announce the end of military operations in Iran. More than $1.9 million has been wagered on June 30 as the target date, with action on both sides of the "yes, no" question.
