After a quiet start to May, the atmosphere over the central United States is primed for an outbreak.
A volatile stretch of severe thunderstorms is expected to unfold across the Plains and Midwest through Tuesday, bringing the risk of intense tornadoes — EF3 or stronger — destructive hail, damaging winds and heavy rain to a region where spring’s most dangerous storms often arrive with considerable force.
May is notorious for severe thunderstorm outbreaks in the Plains and Midwest, and this one could live up to that reputation. This is a big shift from what has been a quiet start to the month, because of a jet stream pattern that has suppressed widespread severe storms until now.
The tornado threat is significant Sunday and Monday. The storm threat shifts east on Tuesday.
The weather pattern is also setting the stage for wildfires. There’s significant fire risk in the Southwest from Arizona to southwest Kansas — we’ll walk through some details on that threat after we talk about the timing for severe storms below.
