Ebola case in the US by June 30?

11% chancePolymarketNEWNEWJun 30, 202611% chancePolymarketNEWNEWJun 30, 2026This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any active laboratory-confirmed Ebola infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.A new Ebola outbreak in remote Ituri province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, confirmed by Africa CDC on May 15 with 246 suspected cases and 65 deaths including 13 laboratory-verified infections, currently drives the 89% market-implied probability against any U.S. case by June 30. The affected Mongwalu and Rwampara health zones have limited international air connectivity and rapid contact-tracing infrastructure that has contained prior DRC outbreaks within weeks. Official CDC and WHO assessments assign low importation risk to the United States given strengthened border surveillance, ring-vaccination capacity, and the virus’s primary transmission via direct bodily-fluid contact rather than airborne spread. Historical precedent shows no U.S. cases linked to the 13 previous DRC outbreaks, and the brief remaining window before June 30 further reduces the chance of undetected travel-related introduction before enhanced monitoring detects anomalies.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Any active laboratory-confirmed Ebola infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:04 PM ETVolume$173End DateJun 30, 2026Market OpenedMay 15, 2026, 3:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".