— Despite the rapid spread, the risk to the U.S. remains low for now, agency says

June 5, 2026

• 2 min read

The Ebola outbreak in Congo could rival the largest on record, according to CDC models of possible trajectories over the next 3 months.

In scenarios that had 70% of Ebola patients entering isolation and 50 Ebola deaths as of May 24, only about one in 20 simulations projected an outbreak exceeding 10,000 cases. But low levels of isolation (20%) and without other interventions found a 65% likelihood that cases would exceed 20,000, reported researchers led by Eric Mooring, ScD, of the CDC's Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics.