A growing Ebola outbreak in Central Africa could surpass 20,000 cases within months if efforts to isolate infected people fail, according to new U.S. health projections. Experts warn the spread of a rare virus strain and ongoing conflict could fuel a major health crisis.
The U.S. Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has warned that the current Ebola outbreak in Central Africa could grow to more than 20,000 cases, depending on how effectively health authorities identify and isolate infected people.
New computer models published by the agency project a range of outcomes, from around 10,000 cases to well over 20,000. In the most severe scenario, the outbreak could approach the scale of the devastating West African epidemic of 2014-2016, which infected more than 28,000 people and claimed over 11,000 lives.
"Without strong public health interventions, an outbreak of that scale is possible," said Dr. Satish Pillai, who leads the CDC's Ebola response.
Experts warn of a dangerous trajectory
