7% chancePolymarketNEWNEWDec 31, 20267% chancePolymarketNEWNEWDec 31, 2026This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent confirmation of a localized Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Ituri province, with roughly 246 suspected cases and 65–80 deaths reported as of mid-May 2026, has not shifted trader sentiment away from the 93% market-implied probability of no pandemic this year. Official data from the WHO and Africa CDC show only 13 laboratory-confirmed cases so far, primarily involving the Bundibugyo strain, which spreads through direct contact with bodily fluids and has historically remained contained within affected regions. Swift international surveillance, contact tracing, and response coordination mirror patterns from prior DRC outbreaks that ended within months without crossing into global transmission. While unexpected urban spread or delayed containment could theoretically elevate risk, current epidemiological indicators and response infrastructure support the strong consensus against pandemic-scale emergence.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETVolume$9,326End DateDec 31, 2026Market OpenedMay 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
