Relative to much of the world, the US oil market has been inured to the fallout of the Mideast oil supply shock. But the groundwork is set for that to materially change. The more acute global shortage of critical diesel and jet fuel supplies — in part stemming from their greater universal use compared to the US' outlier consumption levels of gasoline — has caused the economic signals that refiners use to guide product yields and overall runs to become significantly distorted. Specifically, refiners globally — including in the US itself — have been incentivized in recent weeks to maximize volumes of diesel and jet at the expense of gasoline, even as the peak demand summer driving season approaches in the world's largest gasoline market. That is setting the stage for much-higher gasoline prices in the US in the coming weeks and months — an outcome with political implications heading into the US midterm elections in November. "Everyone's in max diesel mode," Rick Hessling, chief commercial officer at US-focused independent refiner Marathon Petroleum, said this week. "That has led to tightness now on gas[oline] inventories as we head into driving season." Fellow independent refiner Valero pegs US gasoline stocks near the bottom of their five-year range. The reason comes down to simple economics. With the world losing some 7 million barrels per day of refinery throughput capacity in April due to war-related damage to facilities in the Mideast and Russia, as well as supply-driven run cuts in Asia, crack spreads — the price difference between produced products and crude feedstocks — aggressively shifted to signal those refiners still operating to focus on jet and diesel. Jet fuel crack spreads are outperforming gasoline by $66 per barrel in Northwest Europe and $53/bbl in Singapore, according to Energy Intelligence's downstream model. Even in the US Gulf Coast, jet economics are outpacing gasoline by $25/bbl. Diesel cracks are strong as well, pricing roughly $22/bbl above gasoline on the US Gulf Coast. US retail gasoline prices have already been on the rise, with the American Automobile Association flagging a current nationwide average price of $4.54 per gallon up from $3.16/gallon a year ago. Some experts, such as Robert Auers of RBN Energy, already see US consumer behavior responding to high pump prices, although Patrick DeHaan of US retail fuel price tracker GasBuddy says prices of $5.50-$6.00/gallon are generally required to prompt material demand destruction. A Reuters/Ipsos poll held in mid-April found that 77% of registered US voters considered US President Donald Trump at least partially responsible for the recent rise in gasoline prices, including 55% of Republicans, the president's party.