US shale oil production has been resilient in the face of lower prices so far this year, but the real challenge may lie in the months ahead and next year when the global oil market could face its biggest surplus since 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. Opec-plus' accelerated unwinding of 2.5 million barrels per day of output cuts plus growing volumes from Latin America have markets staring at a 1.5 million b/d surplus in the second half of this year — a glut that Energy Intelligence expects to grow in 2026. Any resulting deterioration in oil prices could be problematic for some producers of short-cycle US shale oil, the world's marginal barrel. Oil futures market pricing is starting to reflect the prospect of a coming surplus; the prices of the January 2026 and December 2026 contracts for global benchmark Brent are virtually identical and at risk of flipping into contango, a sign of oversupply. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) now expects spot prices for US benchmark West Texas Intermediate to average $54 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, down from around $63/bbl today, and to average just $48/bbl in 2026. The EIA sees US crude output closing this year at around 13.5 million b/d, the current annual average, and steadily declining to 13.1 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2026 in response to softer prices. Energy Intelligence expects greater resilience, also forecasting US crude production flat at 13.5 million b/d through the end of 2025, but closing 2026 at roughly 13.4 million b/d.