June balances show a supply surplus of 600,000 barrels per day, the lowest in three months, as demand gets a seasonal boost. July balances are essentially flat. After that, demand is steady while supply rises, a trend accentuated now that Opec-plus has opened the taps to unwind voluntary output cuts. But even then, the surplus for the July-October period will be just 500,000 b/d. It is the end of the year that is pulling up the averages, ahead of huge surpluses in the first half of 2026 that are expected to overwhelm the market. The steady supply drip might well dip prices into contango in the fourth quarter as the market had signaled before. Once the prompt discount is steep enough, it becomes financially beneficial to add to storage. But if supply continues to overwhelm, as is expected, it could lower flat prices absent the fear for supply disruptions.