O
f course, he has already claimed victory. After 11 days of US-Israeli bombings in Iran, Donald Trump said at the start of the week that the results spoke for themselves: missile and launcher stockpiles nearing depletion; air force destroyed, navy sunk; command centers demolished. Externally, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been left defenseless. Internally, it has lost many of its leaders, but it still controls the country. And now? What will happen the day after the final victory is declared by the US president?
Trump has taken precautions. He has continuously shifted the goals set for Operation Epic Fury. Simply destroying the military capabilities of the Islamic Republic may be enough for him to claim a historic victory. He will say that this is an outcome that changes the Middle East's strategic landscape, one that none of his predecessors would have dared to imagine. No regime change in Tehran? He explained himself as early as February 28 in his address to Iranians: Once Epic Fury is over, "take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations."
Tacti, Trump swears that Epic Fury could last longer. But nothing is less certain. The war has no more than 30% support among the American public; it is causing energy prices to soar; jobs are being lost at a rapid pace; the midterm elections, set for early November, are shaping up to be close. All these are domestic constraints.
