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cross much of the world, fertility rates are sliding to historic lows. In many high-income economies, women now have 1.5-1.8 children on average, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. At the same time, millions of white-collar workers have traded daily commutes for home offices. These two shifts – the "baby bust" and the remote-work revolution – are usually discussed separately. But in a new working paper, my co-authors and I suggest that the ability to work from home is quietly pushing up birth rates.
Of course, remote work on its own will not reverse decades of demographic decline. But in a world where conventional pronatalist policies are as costly as they are inefficient, giving people greater flexibility over where they work is emerging as one of the most promising and affordable ways to help them have the families they claim to want.
Over the past half-century, global fertility has more than halved, from around five children per woman to about 2.25 today. In many rich countries, fertility has fallen below replacement level and, in some cases, is approaching 1.3 – the level at which a population halves within two generations. At the same time, survey evidence shows that women in richer countries still say their ideal family size is a little above two children.
