https://arab.news/zeppa
World affairs have rarely, if ever, been predictable. However, recent times have seen an increasing number of black swan events. That is, developments that are beyond the realm of normal expectations, of large magnitude and consequence, and which play a vastly larger role than regular occurrences. This volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous landscape is full of opportunity and risk, but it is hard to forecast and navigate.
Looking to the new year, there are two big macro uncertainties. First is whether the geopolitical context will improve or worsen. This is not only in Ukraine, but elsewhere as well, including the Middle East following the post-Oct. 7, 2023, conflicts involving Israel that sent shock waves across the region.
The second key uncertainty is whether the international economic expansion since the trauma of the COVID-19 pandemic will endure. This is driven by an artificial intelligence boom that is disrupting the world economy from top to bottom.
The four possible resulting scenarios are: a combination of continued economic growth and a very challenging geopolitical context (resilient world); an easing of geopolitical tensions with more robust economic growth (peace and prosperity); a combination of a much weaker global economy and easing geopolitical tensions (world stagnates); and continuing, very high geopolitical tensions and global economic angst (time of troubles).
