https://arab.news/9ggz7
The past two decades have ushered in an era where geopolitical uncertainty is no longer an occasional disruptor but a persistent and systemic condition shaping global business. Traditional risk models based on assumptions of relative stability and predictable disruptions are proving inadequate in a world marked by escalating conflicts, fracturing supply chains, and a geopolitical landscape in flux. The stakes are enormous: Companies spanning finance, industry, energy, and technology face a fundamental challenge not only in managing risk, but also in fundamentally rethinking how they understand and navigate uncertainty itself.
Historically, firms confronted geopolitical risk as a series of isolated shocks: wars, sanctions, or political upheavals that, while disruptive, were relatively bounded and transient. The 1990s and early 2000s witnessed this episodic framing, where firms relied on crisis management, insurance, and post-hoc operational fixes. Yet recent years have made clear that uncertainty has morphed into a more complex phenomenon — what academics might term “deep uncertainty” or “Knightian uncertainty,” where probabilities are unknowable and the future resists prediction.
