2026 and beyond to be shaped by uncertainty

World affairs have rarely, if ever, been predictable. However, recent times have seen an increasing number of black swan events. That is, developments that are beyond the realm of normal expectations, of large magnitude and consequence, and which play a vastly larger role than regular occurrences. This volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous landscape is full of opportunity and risk, but it is hard to forecast and navigate. Looking to the new year, there are two big macro uncertainties. First is whether the geopolitical context will improve or worsen.

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