F
rance has just updated its strategic review, which outlines the risks facing the country in the coming years and the means to address them. This was also the subject of the president's traditional address on the eve of Bastille Day. Despite their significance, both the review and the speech did not resonate widely. Yet, what is set out will have tangible consequences for the French people as soon as the 2026 budget and, in the medium term, will demand a true reconfiguration of the state far beyond our military apparatus alone.
The ministerial document analyzes in detail a genuine shift toward an increasingly dangerous world. The Russian threat is placed at the forefront – perhaps too much so – which has the effect of downplaying other risks that are nonetheless far from negligible. The underlying assumption is that France must be ready by 2030 to simultaneously face a high-intensity conflict as well as destabilization operations on national soil. This is a grim prospect that, unfortunately, we must prepare for in the hope of deterring our adversaries.
This is where things become complicated. For if we take the scenario seriously – and unfortunately, it is reasonable to do so – we must immediately acknowledge that the strategic review is not at all convincing about our ability to meet the necessary standard in time (by 2030). Certainly, everything that needs to be done has been identified and discussed; however, actual implementation is not very credible. The agencies have built a kind of Maginot Line that only holds up on paper. Intentions and action plans are already being treated as accomplishments.
