LONDON: Most big emerging economies, including China, Brazil and India, can weather US tariffs without excessive pain, a study by risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft showed, raising doubt about the clout of President Donald Trump’s trade tools.
The firm analyzed the resilience of 20 of the biggest emerging markets using measures from debt levels to export-revenue reliance to gauge their ability to handle trade volatility and rapidly shifting geopolitical alliances.
“Most manufacturing hubs globally are in a better position in their current baseline than you would think or give them credit for to weather this tariff storm specifically coming out of the US, even if it comes to full capacity,” said Reema Bhattacharya, head of Asia research who co-authored the report.
Mexico and Vietnam are among the most exposed to US trade dependence, the paper showed, but progressive economic policies, improving infrastructure and political stability meant they were among the more resilient economies.
Brazil and South Africa, it said, are effectively building links with other trade partners that could shield them in coming years.
