Within a year of taking office, U.S. president Donald Trump turned global trade on its head. His sweeping tariffs took effect on Aug. 1, and have since upended countless trade relationships countries built through years of diplomacy. Yet despite the U.S.’ tariffs, global trade has been more resilient than expected, say Macquarie’s analysts in their 2026 global economic and market outlook (which was released in December). They’ve even benefitted an unlikely group: Southeast Asian economies.
This is because many Chinese exporters turned to transshipping to reduce tariff payments—a process that led them to route goods through ASEAN countries before shipping them to the U.S.
Consequently, in 2025, the U.S. saw a reduction in Chinese goods, which were slapped with steep 40% tariffs, and an increase in ASEAN imports, which had lower tariffs averaging 10%.
President Trump, meanwhile, sought to diversify U.S. supply chains by inking trade deals with four ASEAN countries—Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia and Vietnam—and pledging America’s commitment to the region.
“Our message to the nations of Southeast Asia is that the US is with you 100% and we intend to be a strong partner and friend for many generations to come,” Trump told leaders at the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur on Oct. 26, noting that two-way trade between U.S. and Southeast Asia had reached a record of $453 billion in 2024.
