R
ecently, the "fog of war" has morphed into the "fog of diplomacy." There is no point trying to untangle the confused impulses of the Trump administration. We must stand on the only solid ground available: Russia's objectives – especially since it is always on that side that the American president ends up. Here, the situation is clear. The Russian economy has been plunging at an accelerated pace.
Militarily, Russia is making progress, but not quickly enough to win the race against economic collapse. The Kremlin's men have a long memory. They remember that most of the Russian Empire's territorial expansions were achieved with the complicity and help of one or more foreign powers: in the wake of Prussia and Austria for the partition of Poland in 1772; by coming to an agreement with Turkey to reconquer the Caucasian states in 1920-1921; by relying on Germany for the reconquest of the Baltic States and the annexation of Galicia (the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact, signed in 1939). So why not turn to Donald Trump to bring Ukraine to heel?
Military force is always a last resort in the eyes of those in the Kremlin. They prefer manipulation and subversion. And this is where they excel, thanks to Western ignorance of Russian methods of projecting power, which remain unchanged. In addition to co-opting a foreign accomplice, the second hallmark of Russian expansion is the salami tactic. Russia slices up its victim (as we saw with Ukraine: First Crimea, then the Donbas). Once the first slice is taken, it moves on to the second, then the third.
