The tropics may be relatively quiet for the moment but the latest forecast outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season doesn't expect that to last.
A more active than normal season is still expected, reports the tropical research team at Colorado State University. The forecast is unchanged from its initial April release, which calls for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
Activity is expected to be about 125% of the average hurricane season from 1991-2020. Activity in 2024 – with its five landfalling hurricanes in the mainland United States – was about 130% of average. The Colorado State team also sees an above-average probability of major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
“So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, and 2021,” said lead author Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in Colorado State's atmospheric science department. His co-authors are CSU professor Michael Bell and research scientist Levi Silvers.
The risk of a major hurricane, with winds of more than 111 mph, making landfall somewhere along the entire U.S. mainland coastline is about 51%, according to the update.
