Fed holds rates at 3.75% as traders price 61% odds of a September hike. Warsh talks inflation, yields, and AI capex.

Fed traders split on hold versus hike odds ahead of July 29 as analyst Frank Flight bets on a surprise 25 bps move.

Markets lean toward a September Fed rate hike as rising Treasury yields, policymaker dissents and firm energy prices signal a more hawkish policy path.