Markets price a hold at Wednesday's decision, but a real minority sees a surprise hike, with Citadel Securities and UBS among those flagging the risk.

Bitcoin eyes a pivotal few weeks as the Fed, ETF flows, CLARITY Act and key price levels set the stage for fresh volatility.

The put/call ratio has fallen to about 0.52 from 0.76 in late June, and one-week downside protection has collapsed in price. The options market is positioned for a quiet week that…