Fed rate hike unlikely this week amid low expectations. Rate hike by July 2026 at 24.2% YES, September 2026 at 69.5% YES, October 2026 at 73.5% YES.

Traders are increasingly anticipating a surprise Fed rate hike. Rate hike by September 2026 at 61.5% YES.

The bar for a U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike this week is likely higher than rate futures markets suggest, owing not only to...