Iran-aligned groups escalate attacks on Red Sea shipping. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31 at 10.5% YES.

Attacks on ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb threaten to cut off millions of barrels per day of Saudi crude oil exports.

Houthis deploy missiles and drones in the Red Sea amid rising tensions. Military action against Israel by July 31, 2026, at 9.5% YES.