Iran-aligned groups escalate attacks on Red Sea shipping. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31 at 10.5% YES.

Houthis deploy missiles and drones in the Red Sea amid rising tensions. Military action against Israel by July 31, 2026, at 9.5% YES.

The attack on ships in the Red Sea threatened to expand the conflict and severely impact global oil supplies already hobbled by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.