Iran's IRGC vows to target U.S. and Israeli commanders in their homes. Full airspace closure by July 31 at 31.5% YES.

Iran strikes U.S. bases in Jordan and Kuwait. Military action against a Gulf state by July 22 at 62.5% YES.

Iran launches missiles at US targets, escalating tensions. Full airspace closure by August 31 at 57% YES.

IRGC claims a strike on a US hub in Syria amid rising tensions. Full airspace closure by July 31 at 38.5% YES, by August 31 at 53.5% YES.

Iran launches missiles and drones at U.S. positions, raising tensions. Full airspace closure by July 31 at 24.5% YES.

Iran activates air defenses in Tehran amid rising tensions. Full airspace closure by July 31 at 30.5% YES, by August 31 at 44% YES.

Iran redeploys air defenses in Tehran amid US-Israel tensions. Full airspace closure by August 31 at 46.5% YES.

Iran activated air defenses in Isfahan amid US strikes. Full airspace closure by July 31 at 29% YES, by August 31 at 44% YES.

Iran's IRGC vows to target U.S. and Israeli commanders in their homes. Full airspace closure by July 31 at 31.5% YES.

Iran activates air defense in Tehran amid US strikes. Full airspace closure by July 31 at 35.5% YES.

Iran's IRGC warns Gulf state bases could be targets. Military action against a Gulf state by July 30 at 40.5% YES.

Iran's IRGC claims attacks on U.S. military positions in Kuwait. Military action against a Gulf state on July 23 at 83.5% YES.

Iran activates air defense in Tehran amid regional tensions. Full airspace closure by August 31 at 60.5% YES.

Iran's IRGC targets U.S. military assets in Jordan and Erbil. Final nuclear deal by August 13, 2026 at 2.6% YES.