Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly targeted U.S. military assets in Jordan and the Erbil region of Iraq, according to a report by @tenet_research. The strikes represent a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States, which has seen both nations engage in retaliatory attacks. This development comes amid heightened tensions in the region, with the IRGC’s latest actions marking an expansion of the conflict beyond Iranian territory, further complicating the prospects for a diplomatic resolution.
The markets tracking the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran final nuclear deal by August 13, 2026, appear to have been impacted by this escalation. Current pricing suggests a decrease in the probability of reaching a deal, as the aggressive military actions contradict the conditions necessary for negotiations. As of now, the market for a deal by the end of July shows nearly zero likelihood, while odds for August remain below 10%.
The escalation cycle has persisted, with the United States having previously conducted strikes on IRGC-linked targets. Iran’s use of missiles and drones reflects a direct approach in targeting military infrastructure, indicating a higher level of confrontation compared to previous proxy engagements.
