Iran strikes US military barracks in Bahrain amid escalating conflict. Iranian regime fall by end of 2026 at 9.5% YES.

Iran launches retaliatory strikes on Gulf states amid war escalation. Full airspace closure by July 31 at 31.5% YES.

Bahrain activates air raid sirens amid rising tensions. Iranian military action against a Gulf state on July 12 at 70.5% YES.