Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly conducted retaliatory strikes against US military facilities located in Bahrain, Oman, Jordan, and Kuwait. The attacks, which Iran claims included the destruction of radar systems in Oman, come amid an escalation following the breakdown of a ceasefire and renewed US military actions in the region. These developments mark a significant intensification in the ongoing 2026 conflict between Iran and the US, with potential implications for military and shipping activities in the Gulf.
Pricing in prediction markets appears consistent with a heightened perception of risk for shipping disruptions. The market for “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13” experienced a notable increase in implied probability, reaching 53.6% YES, up from 23% in the previous day. This shift follows recent Iranian actions that have expanded the geographical scope of the conflict and directly threatened regional command capabilities.
Markets also reflect skepticism about any imminent commitments from Iran to refrain from attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The market assessing the possibility of Iran committing not to attack ships in Hormuz by July 12 remains low, with a 0.4% YES probability, suggesting that market participants currently view such a diplomatic breakthrough as unlikely.
