Explosions reported on Iran's Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. Fewer than 150 ships transiting the strait between July 6-12 at 86.3% YES.

Iran attacks a cargo ship amid explosions in Jask. Successful targeting of shipping by July 11 at 22.8% YES.

Explosions reported near Qeshm Island amid US-Iran tensions. Iranian regime's fall by end of 2026 at 7.5% YES.