Global oil supply rebounded in June after a ceasefire allowed Strait of Hormuz transit. However, renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran threaten future oil surplus forecasts. The International Energy Agency sees potential disruption to its 2027 surplus projection. Refined product markets remain tight due to refinery issues and Ukrainian attacks. Global oil demand is recovering, but overall supply forecasts depend on lasting peace.

In its new Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA said last month's US-Iran MOU prompted massive revisions to its prior forecast.

Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and attacks on commercial shipping have reignited fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices sharply higher.