Global oil supply rebounded in June after a ceasefire allowed Strait of Hormuz transit. However, renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran threaten future oil surplus forecasts. The International Energy Agency sees potential disruption to its 2027 surplus projection. Refined product markets remain tight due to refinery issues and Ukrainian attacks. Global oil demand is recovering, but overall supply forecasts depend on lasting peace.

The EIA projects global crude oil production will recover to pre-conflict levels by end of 2026 as the US-Iran deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

In its new Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA said last month's US-Iran MOU prompted massive revisions to its prior forecast.

Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and attacks on commercial shipping have reignited fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices sharply higher.

Global oil supply rebounded in June after a ceasefire allowed Strait of Hormuz transit. However, renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran threaten future oil surplus…

Global oil demand is showing signs of recovery as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resume and crude prices ease, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. While the agency…

Sources suggest that the ceasefire can be revived amid a lull in fighting and backroom diplomacy.

"An escalation in hostilities on 7-8 July, however, clouds the outlook and could upend the forecast that sees the market flipping to a surplus next year"

The IEA eased its forecast declines for global oil supply and demand this year as June proved stronger than expected. But Hormuz hangs in the balance.

Global energy demand has started to recover as oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz partially resumed in June, the IEA said.