Iran faces a leadership vacuum post-Khamenei amid IRGC dominance. Reza Pahlavi's return by December 31 at 5.5% YES.

Mojtaba Khamenei assumes leadership in Iran amid rising tensions. He remains head of state by end of 2026 at 83% YES.

Iran mobilizes for retribution after Khamenei's assassination. Leadership change by December 31 at 15.5% YES.

Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public since March, raising concerns about his leadership. Leadership change in Iran by December 31 at 15.5% YES.

Various factions look to exploit the political vacuum left by new supreme leader’s enforced absence

Iran's Pezeshkian attended Khamenei's funeral, signaling leadership continuity. No head of state in Iran by end of 2026 at 2.4% YES.

Khamenei assassinated in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike. Iranian regime fall by end of 2026 at 8.5% YES, leadership change by December 31 at 17.5% YES.

Pahlavi accuses Iran of hiding public sentiment. Leadership change by December 31 at 15.5% YES.

Iran faces a leadership vacuum post-Khamenei amid IRGC dominance. Reza Pahlavi's return by December 31 at 5.5% YES.