Iran faces a leadership vacuum post-Khamenei amid IRGC dominance. Reza Pahlavi's return by December 31 at 5.5% YES.

Mojtaba Khamenei assumes leadership in Iran amid rising tensions. He remains head of state by end of 2026 at 83% YES.

Iran mobilizes for retribution after Khamenei's assassination. Leadership change by December 31 at 15.5% YES.