Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz raises concerns of conflict escalation. U.S. war declaration on Iran by December 31, 2026 at 5.5% YES.

A retired US general warns of potential conflict over Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz. US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 11.5% YES.

Iran claims control over parts of the Strait of Hormuz amid US talks. WTI reaching $110 in July 2026 at 0.7% YES.