Ukrainian drones struck the Omsk Oil Refinery, signaling a shift in military capabilities. Recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 10.5% YES.

Ukraine launched drone strikes on Russian refineries and ports, causing market odds for recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 to drop to 11.5% YES.

On 6 July, Deep Strike units of Ukraine's Special Operations Forces (SOF) successfully hit Russia's largest oil refinery, located in the city of Omsk.