Ukraine threatens strikes on Belarus over Russian drone stations. Ceasefire by December 31, 2026 at 39.5% YES.

Ukraine escalates strikes on Russian energy sites, complicating ceasefire chances. Ceasefire by December 31, 2026 at 39% YES.

Russia escalated its attacks on Ukraine with 2,200 drones and 1,730 bombs in a week. Ukraine recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11.5% YES.

Ukraine launched drone strikes on Russian refineries and ports, causing market odds for recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 to drop to 11.5% YES.

Russia escalates missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, killing 21 civilians. Russian advance into Sloviansk by December 31, 2026 at 26% YES.

Ukraine threatens strikes on Belarus over Russian drone stations. Ceasefire by December 31, 2026 at 39.5% YES.