Russia escalates missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, killing 21 civilians. Russian advance into Sloviansk by December 31, 2026 at 26% YES.

Ukrainian drones hit Russian oil sites, increasing pressure on Putin. Ukraine recaptures Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11.5% YES.

Russian missile strike on Kyiv kills 31, concluding rescue operations. Ceasefire by December 31, 2026 at 38.5% YES.

Ukraine escalates strikes on Russian energy sites, complicating ceasefire chances. Ceasefire by December 31, 2026 at 39% YES.

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian drone center, causing 10-15 casualties. Ukraine recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11.5% YES.

Russia escalated its attacks on Ukraine with 2,200 drones and 1,730 bombs in a week. Ukraine recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11.5% YES.

Ukraine launched drone strikes on Russian refineries and ports, causing market odds for recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 to drop to 11.5% YES.

NATO supports Ukraine's intensified strikes on Russian infrastructure. Russia entering Sloviansk by December 31, 2026 at 22.5% YES.

Russia launches a deadly missile and drone attack on Ukraine, raising tensions. NATO-Russia military clash by December 31, 2026 at 16.5% YES.

Russia attacks Kyiv, revealing Ukraine's air defense gaps. Recapture of Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 10.5% YES; Russian entry into Sloviansk at 26.0% YES.

Ukraine fails to intercept 29 Russian missiles in Kyiv attack, resulting in 25 deaths. Russia entering Sloviansk by December 31, 2026 at 26.5% YES.

Russia escalates missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, killing 21 civilians. Russian advance into Sloviansk by December 31, 2026 at 26% YES.

Ukraine threatens strikes on Belarus over Russian drone stations. Ceasefire by December 31, 2026 at 39.5% YES.