Ukraine strikes a Russian oil tanker and Kerch terminal in Crimea. Recapturing Crimean territory by December 31, 2026 at 11.5% YES.

Ukraine strikes Crimea substations, causing power outages. Recapture of Crimean territory by December 31, 2026 at 11.5% YES.

Ukraine escalates strikes on Russian energy sites, complicating ceasefire chances. Ceasefire by December 31, 2026 at 39% YES.