Ukraine strikes a Russian oil tanker and Kerch terminal in Crimea. Recapturing Crimean territory by December 31, 2026 at 11.5% YES.

A drone attack hit an oil terminal in St. Petersburg, signaling Ukraine's deep strike capability; recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 is at 11.5% YES.

Ukraine is engaged in a campaign in Crimea to take out Russian air defenses, sever vital supply lines, and cripple the peninsula's energy grid and fuel reserves.