Ukraine escalates strikes on Russian energy sites, complicating ceasefire chances. Ceasefire by December 31, 2026 at 39% YES.

Ukraine strikes Russian oil refinery and UAV warehouse. Recapturing Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11.5% YES.

Putin launches retaliatory strikes after Ukraine attacks. Russia entering Sloviansk by December 31, 2026 at 24% YES.