Further vulnerability stems from the EU's dependence on the U.S. for technology, including design software and the possibility the U.S. could block exports to China by chip-making equipment supplier ASML, Europe's most valuable company.

China faces three specific barriers as it aims to produce key chipmaking equipment. Monitoring progress in these areas would help Western countries make better chip and AI policy.

A June 2026 IAI report warns EU semiconductor ambitions face pressure from US investment incentives and Chinese raw material dominance.