Iran appoints Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader after his father's death. No head of state in Iran by end of 2026 at 2.7% YES.

Khamenei's death triggers leadership transition in Iran. Leadership change by December 31 at 16.5% YES.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli strike, leading to increased instability; regime fall by end of 2026 at 9.5% YES.