Every few weeks, a new wargame, a new intelligence leak, or a new headline arrives suggesting that Russia is about to attack the Baltic states. The conversation has become so constant that it risks losing meaning, so it is worth pausing on what the people who actually look at the question for a living are saying, and what they are not.

As Baltic states prepare for an invasion, Russia continues to avoid a full attack, using hybrid tactics to test NATO's response

Every few weeks, a new wargame, a new intelligence leak, or a new headline arrives suggesting that Russia is about to attack the Baltic states. The conversation has become so…