Following an unexpectedly hot jobs report, prediction market traders see a 52% chance the Federal Reserve increases interest rates this year.

$1,409,579 has traded on "Fed rate hike in 2026?" as of June 5, 2026. View real-time odds or trade on The World's Largest Prediction Market™

$156,758 has traded on "Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?" as of June 5, 2026. View real-time odds or trade on The World's Largest Prediction Market™

Traders in the US$31 trillion Treasuries market fully priced in a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike by the end of this year. Read more here

Following an unexpectedly hot jobs report, prediction market traders see a 52% chance the Federal Reserve increases interest rates this year.

Odds of at least one interest rate increase by year-end rose to 67%, up from 45% last week, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

May 2026 jobs report crushed estimates with 172,000 new payrolls, pushing Fed rate hike odds to 70% and sending the Nasdaq down 4% as crypto faces

May's 172,000 jobs surprise doubled forecasts, pushing Fed rate hike odds to 68% by December 2026 and wiping $390B from crypto markets.