Trump calls for NATO action and threatens military force at the Strait of Hormuz. Restart of Project Freedom by May 31 at 7.6% YES.

US-Israeli airstrikes hit Iranian vessels amid Trump's uranium demands. US invasion of Iran before 2027 now at 19.5% YES.

US-Iran negotiations continue amid US strikes on Bandar Abbas. Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by July 31 at 59.5% YES.

CENTCOM confirms Project Freedom not resumed. Restart by May 31 at 9.5% YES; daily transits of Strait of Hormuz between 10-20 at 14% YES.

Trump calls for NATO action and threatens military force at the Strait of Hormuz. Restart of Project Freedom by May 31 at 7.6% YES.

Trump announced the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz as part of an Iran deal. Blockade lifted by May 31, 2026, at 22% YES.

Trump threatens military action against Oman over the Strait of Hormuz. Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by July 31 at 62.5% YES.

US military strikes an Iranian site in the Strait of Hormuz. US invasion of Iran before 2027 rises to 22.5% YES.