CENTCOM confirms Project Freedom not resumed, impacting market perceptions

## Market Snapshot

The market for “Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?” currently shows 9.5% YES, having risen from 2% 24 hours ago. In contrast, the market for “Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?” remains at 14% YES, reflecting relatively stable expectations.

## Key Takeaways

– The US CENTCOM statement appears to confirm that Project Freedom has not resumed, suggesting a lower likelihood of a restart by May 31. – Market activity indicates a significant spike in the probability of a Project Freedom restart, but the CENTCOM statement may counteract this view. – The market for ship transits in the Strait of Hormuz appears unaffected by the CENTCOM announcement, suggesting stability in maritime expectations.

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