Polymarket traders have poured $154M into US-Iran peace deal contracts, with 91% odds for a deal by Dec. 31, 2026.

Trump announced US-Iran nuclear deal talks are in final stages, making a $150 oil spike less likely. WTI at 1.4% YES for $150 in May 2026.

Iran says US proposal narrows ceasefire gaps. Bitcoin rallied to $83K on peace optimism while $500M in Iranian-linked crypto assets were frozen by US authorities.