NOAA’s seasonal outlook gives a 55% chance of a below average season for the Atlantic. The agency forecasts 8 to 14 named storms, with 3 to 6 likely to become hurricanes.

Previous early forecasts have generally suggested a slightly below-average Atlantic season, while noting high levels of uncertainty in the forecast.

Forecasters expect 8 to 14 storms will form in the Atlantic between June 1 and November 30. But the danger is more serious than the numbers suggest.

This year’s expected El Niño could hamper hurricanes in the Atlantic but boost them in the central and eastern Pacific