The impending arrival of El Niño will help keep the number of storms low. But it only takes one landfall to create a catastrophe.

Previous early forecasts have generally suggested a slightly below-average Atlantic season, while noting high levels of uncertainty in the forecast.

Forecasters expect 8 to 14 storms will form in the Atlantic between June 1 and November 30. But the danger is more serious than the numbers suggest.

This year’s expected El Niño could hamper hurricanes in the Atlantic but boost them in the central and eastern Pacific