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US Navy strike on Iranian supertanker raises regional tensions
US Navy strikes Iranian supertanker, raising regional tensions. US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 26.5% YES, Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization at 37.5% YE
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US and Iran announce framework to ease tensions, reopen Strait of Hormuz
US and Iran announce a framework to ease tensions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil prices reaching $130 in May 2026 at 8.5% YES.
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China rejects US sanctions over Iran, vows to protect firms
China rejects US sanctions over Iran, increasing tensions. Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026 at 16.5% YES.
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US Navy strike on Iranian supertanker raises regional tensions
US Navy strikes Iranian supertanker, raising regional tensions. US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 26.5% YES, Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization at 37.5% YE
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US plans military escalation in Iran amid high tensions: Hegseth
US plans military escalation in Iran amid high tensions. Iran leadership status by end of 2026 at 3.3% YES.
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Iran maintains control over Strait of Hormuz, impacting shipping traffic
Iran maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz, affecting shipping traffic. 20 ships transiting by May 31 at 61% YES.
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Saudi Arabia, UAE conduct secret attacks in Iran, escalating regional tensions
Saudi Arabia and UAE conduct secret attacks in Iran, raising tensions. Iran closes its airspace by May 31 at 37.5% YES; US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 at
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US Centcom redirects 70 vessels amid Hormuz blockade enforcement
US Centcom redirected 70 vessels amid Hormuz blockade enforcement. Blockade lifted by May 31 at 25.5% YES.
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30 China-linked vessels transit Strait of Hormuz under Iranian supervision
Thirty China-linked vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian supervision. Transit of 20 ships by May 31 at 64% YES.
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CENTCOM signals readiness as US-Iran nuclear deal prospects dim
CENTCOM signals decreased likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31. Deal at 7.5% YES.
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Chinese vessels exit Strait of Hormuz amid Beijing's opposition to Iranian tolls
Chinese vessels exit the Strait of Hormuz amid opposition to Iranian tolls. Strait traffic by May 15 at 0.1% YES.