It is hardly an exaggeration to say that the latest US-Israeli war with Iran may have pushed the Middle East into its most dangerous phase since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. More than another regional clash, it has exposed the limits of American power, the reach of Israeli deterrence, Iran’s position in the regional balance, and the resilience of the Gulf security structure. At the same time, the war has demonstrated that talk of a “new Middle East” does not necessarily mean a more stable one. It may instead signal a region that is more exposed, more fragmented and more volatile.

Iran is raising the costs of a continued war, for the US and Gulf nations. But could it — and the US — escalate further?

It is hardly an exaggeration to say that the latest US-Israeli war with Iran may have pushed the Middle East into its most dangerous phase since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. More…