On the American online betting site Polymarket, which is blocked in France, the estimated probability that the prime minister will leave office by the end of the year jumped from 57% to 89% within a few hours on Monday.

If he loses the confidence vote, French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou's minority government will fall.

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou will hold a high-stakes confidence vote in parliament on September 8 over unpopular plans to clean up France’s public finances.