Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein said Monday that there may be more progress on the Clarity Act than markets expected last week after Senate Republicans made concessions on ethics and other concerns ahead of Tuesday's procedural vote.
"It now appears, there may be further progress on Clarity than consensus expectations last week," the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note to clients. "We reckon, any positive surprise is definitely not priced in," they said, as prediction market odds climbed back above 30% on Kalshi.
Late Sunday, Senate Republicans released what they described as the final draft of the Clarity Act, incorporating 126 "substantive changes" requested by Democrats. President Donald Trump agreed to most of a bipartisan ethics proposal, including a role for state attorneys general in enforcing its restrictions. The draft also gives the Treasury secretary authority to impose a "circuit-breaker" and temporarily restrict stablecoin rewards if payment stablecoins trigger substantial withdrawals from community banks.
Bernstein said the ethics offer is "probably as good as it gets," adding that the White House's acceptance of an enforcement role for state attorneys general, on top of crypto divestment or blind trust conditions, could be enough for a handful of Democrats to support the cloture vote, keeping hopes alive for last-minute negotiations before the final vote.
