The crypto market structure bill is becoming a high-stakes political bet, with prediction markets and Washington insiders sending sharply different signals on its chances of passing.
Polymarket currently places the CLARITY Act’s passage odds at roughly 14%, while some Capitol Hill sources privately estimate the probability at just 3% to 5%.
One industry insider on Wednesday argued that lawmakers broadly expect the bill to fail but are reluctant to say so publicly after the crypto industry spent tens of millions of dollars and roughly 18 months lobbying for the legislation.
The speculation also comes as Democrats have yet to provide a clear answer on ethics concerns involving President Donald Trump’s crypto-related dealings.
If CLARITY fails, Washington may pivot away from a sweeping crypto market structure bill and pursue narrower legislation targeting specific parts of the industry, such as stablecoins, tokenization, perpetual futures and prediction markets.
